基于伏邪理论探讨2015—2020年天津市荨麻疹滞后发病与气象因素相关性
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国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202110063003)


Correlation Between Delayed Onset of Urticaria and Meteorological Factors in Tianjin from 2015 to 2020:Based on the Theory of Latent Pathogen
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    摘要:

    目的:探讨气象因素对荨麻疹发病滞后性的影响。方法:收集2015年1月至2020年12月天津市4家医院荨麻疹每天的病例资料与气象资料,利用Spearman相关分析及分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析气象因素对荨麻疹发病的滞后性影响,统计计算采用SPSS 21.0及R 3.5.1完成。结果:天津市荨麻疹病例就诊数在立秋、处暑2个节气出现高峰值,在大寒、立春2个节气为低谷值。荨麻疹门诊病例数与平均温度(rs=0.361)、相对湿度(rs=0.095)、日照(rs=0.124)、最高温度(rs=0.359)、最低温度(rs=0.352)正相关(P<0.05);与平均风速(rs=-0.048)负相关(P<0.05)。当平均温度、相对湿度、降水量、日照时长分别在27.5~30.0 ℃、30%~35%、6~10 mm、0 h,滞后时间分别为0个节气、0个节气、0.5~1.3个节气、2个节气时,荨麻疹发病的滞后效应达到峰值;当平均风速分别在2~2.5 m/s、4 m/s,滞后时间分别为2个节气、1个节气时,荨麻疹发病的滞后效应出现2个峰值,呈现双峰趋势。各气象要素滞后效应与荨麻疹发病的关系,平均气温28 ℃的滞后效应在滞后0个节气时最大,相对危险度(RR)为1.660,95%CI为1.077~2.558(P<0.05),平均气温-2.8 ℃的滞后效应在滞后0个节气时最小,RR为0.631,95%CI为0.416~0.960(P<0.05);平均风速3.0 m/s的滞后效应在滞后0个节气时最小,相对危险度RR值为0.836,95%CI为0.726~0.963(P<0.05)。结论:平均气温、相对湿度、降水量、平均风速、日照时长等气象因素对荨麻疹发病均有一定影响,其中降水量、平均风速、日照时长对荨麻疹发病存在一定程度的滞后效应影响,又以平均风速滞后效应影响时间较长。

    Abstract:

    To explore the influence of meteorological factors on delayed onset of urticaria.Methods:The daily data of urticaria cases in four hospitals and meteorological data in Tianjin from January 2015 to December 2020 were collected.Spearman's correlation analysis and distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM) were used to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on delayed onset of urticaria.Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 21.0 and R 3.5.1.Results:Two peak values were observed in the number of medical consultation on urticaria in Tianjin in the Beginning of Autumn and the End of Heat,while the trough values occurred in Greater Cold and the Beginning of Spring.The number of urticaria cases was positively correlated with average temperature(rs=0.361),relative humidity(rs=0.095),sunshine duration(rs=0.124),maximum temperature(rs=0.359),and minimum temperature(rs=0.352)(P<0.05),while negatively correlated with average wind speed(rs=-0.048)(P<0.05).The delayed onset of urticaria reached the peak under the average temperature at 27.5~30 ℃,relative humidity of 30%~35%,precipitation of 6~10 mm,sunshine duration of 0 h,and when the lag time was 0 solar term,0 solar term,0.5~1.3 solar terms,and 2 solar terms.The delayed effect showed two peaks when the average wind speed was 2~2.5 m/s and 4 m/s,and the lag time was 2 solar terms and 1 solar term,presenting a double peak trend.Regarding the relationship between delayed effect of various meteorological factors and onset of urticaria,the delayed effect of average temperature at 28 ℃ reached the highest with 0 solar term lag [relative risk(RR):1.660,95%CI 1.077 to 2.558,P<0.05)]; the delayed effect of average temperature at -2.8 ℃ reached the lowest with 0 solar term lag (RR:0.631,95%CI 0.416 to 0.960,P<0.05); the delayed effect of average wind speed of 3.0 m/s reached the lowest with 0 solar term lag (RR:0.836,95%CI 0.726 to 0.963,P<0.05).Conclusion:Meteorological factors such as average temperature,relative humidity,precipitation,average wind speed,and sunshine duration had a certain impact on the incidence of urticaria,among which precipitation,average wind speed,and sunshine duration affected the delayed onset of urticaria; especially average wind speed had the longest impact.

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康帅,张帆,王上,胡莲怡,梁丽金,袁卫玲,李城.基于伏邪理论探讨2015—2020年天津市荨麻疹滞后发病与气象因素相关性[J].世界中医药,2022,(21).

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-12-12
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